Paul Ehrlich & the Population Bomb : professional optimists

from the Population Bomb by Dr. Paul R. Ehrlich, twelfth printing, Feb 1970, page 26-27

There are some professional optimists around who like to greet every sign of dropping birth rates with wild pronouncements about the end of the population explosion. They are a little like a person who, after a low temperature of five below zero on December 21, interperts a low of only three below on December 22 as a cheery sign of approaching spring. First of all, birth rates show short-term fluctuations caused by many factors. For instance, the birth rates depends rather heavily on the number of women at reproductive age. In the United States the current low birth rates soon will be replaced by higher rates as more post World War II "baby boom" children move into their reproductive years. In Japan, 1966, the Year of the Fire Horse, there was a year of very low birth rates. There is widespread belief that girls born in the Year of the Fire Horse make poor wives, and Japanese couples try to avoid giving birth in that year because they are afraid of having daughters.

He presents Japan's birthrate drop in 1966 as an example of a sign used by "professional optimists [although he labels them with a term of disparagement he doesn't name anyone] around who like to greet every sign of dropping birth rates with wild pronouncements about the end of the population explosion"

Let's deconstruct :

• start with a strawman argument that "greet every sign of dropping birth rates with wild pronouncements about the end of the population explosion"
• don't mention anyone who believe this
• derisively refer to the anonymous believers as "professional optimists"
• make an analogy to the passage of seasons to suggest it is cyclical (Does that imply that people having large families was also cylical?)
• declare that high birthrates will return in the US
• cite Japan in 1966 as an example of short term fluctuations in birth ratres
• imply that Japan will also return to high birth rates 

"In the United States the current low birth rates soon will be replaced by higher rates as more post World War II "baby boom" children move into their reproductive years." Let's see what happened :

United States birthrate 1900-2010

the red line denotes the Baby Boom (source)

US Total Fertility Rate
The red line shows a replacement rate of 2.1. (source)

Ehrlich is correct that Japan's birth rate dropped in 1966.

Japanese Birthrate 1900-2010
(source)

Japanese Total Fertility Rate 1925-2010

The red line shows a replacement rate of 2.1.
(source excel)

Japan was below the replacement rate from 1960-1964, above in 1965 (in anticipation of year of the fire horse), below in 1966 (year of the fire horse), above 1967-1973 and below in the following 37 years. Of the 50 years from 1960-2010, 8 are slightly above the replacement rate (peaking at 2.23 in 1967) while 42 are below the replacement rate.

1966 Japan is an example of "short-term fluctuations" in birthrates but somehow Ehrlich forgot to  mention that Japan's birthrate had for several years been below the replacement rate. It doesn't take a "professional optimist" to see Japan's birthrate dropping and come to the conclusion that Japan's population explosion has ended. 

Ehrlich was just another propagandist who would identify an issue and then declare some centralized control must be enforced. 

(note: a post written in 2016 but never posted, but I was reminded of it by Ehrlich's death)

Paul Ehrlich & the Population Bomb : 70 million hungry people

 “By the year 2000 the United Kingdom will be simply a small group of impoverished islands, inhabited by some 70 million hungry people ... If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000.” 
–Paul Ehrlich, Speech at British Institute For Biology, September 1971. (note that the quote by Ehrlich is not from the book)

Everyone panic! Wiki says the UK's population was 58,789,194 in 2001 but Ehrlich's prediction was 70 million hungry people. The mass starvation must have already begun! 

the UK population estimate for 2024 is 69,281,437.  

Paul Ehrlich & the Population Bomb : The Paul Ehrlich Method for Picking Up Chicks

the back cover of the Population Bomb 

The Paul Ehrlich Method for Picking Up Chicks is based on an assertion made on the back cover of The Population Bomb by Paul R. Ehrlich. Take careful note of inalienable right #11 : “The right to have grandchildren.”

What you need : the book the Population Bomb, a girl

How it works : 

Step 1 : find a girl, approach her and get her mother’s phone number
Step 2 : convince her mother how awesome you are and why you would make a great father
Step 3 : explain to the girl in step one that while it is unfortunate that her mother’s positive right to grandchildren infringes on her right to make her own decisions it remains that this (hold up book and wave it about) says her mother has “the right to have grandchildren” and the decision has been made so the daughter has a duty to oblige or else she will be violating her mother’s rights.
Step 4 : profit

Go ahead and try it : no guarantees are offered or implied.

Also note inalienable right #6 : “The right to avoid regimentation” From a book whose main message is shut up and be controlled. Here is the full list of asserted rights on the back cover.

(inside the book, a list of rights is given to be used as a response to anyone who claims individuals should have the right to decide how many children they have. The idea is that multiple rights (to grandchildren, to enjoy natural beauty etc) by sheer numbers outweigh any single right. I’d also say it is intended to devalue the idea of rights.)