Paul Ehrlich & the Population Bomb : professional optimists

from the Population Bomb by Dr. Paul R. Ehrlich, twelfth printing, Feb 1970, page 26-27

There are some professional optimists around who like to greet every sign of dropping birth rates with wild pronouncements about the end of the population explosion. They are a little like a person who, after a low temperature of five below zero on December 21, interperts a low of only three below on December 22 as a cheery sign of approaching spring. First of all, birth rates show short-term fluctuations caused by many factors. For instance, the birth rates depends rather heavily on the number of women at reproductive age. In the United States the current low birth rates soon will be replaced by higher rates as more post World War II "baby boom" children move into their reproductive years. In Japan, 1966, the Year of the Fire Horse, there was a year of very low birth rates. There is widespread belief that girls born in the Year of the Fire Horse make poor wives, and Japanese couples try to avoid giving birth in that year because they are afraid of having daughters.

He presents Japan's birthrate drop in 1966 as an example of a sign used by "professional optimists [although he labels them with a term of disparagement he doesn't name anyone] around who like to greet every sign of dropping birth rates with wild pronouncements about the end of the population explosion"

Let's deconstruct :

• start with a strawman argument that "greet every sign of dropping birth rates with wild pronouncements about the end of the population explosion"
• don't mention anyone who believe this
• derisively refer to the anonymous believers as "professional optimists"
• make an analogy to the passage of seasons to suggest it is cyclical (Does that imply that people having large families was also cylical?)
• declare that high birthrates will return in the US
• cite Japan in 1966 as an example of short term fluctuations in birth ratres
• imply that Japan will also return to high birth rates 

"In the United States the current low birth rates soon will be replaced by higher rates as more post World War II "baby boom" children move into their reproductive years." Let's see what happened :

United States birthrate 1900-2010

the red line denotes the Baby Boom (source)

US Total Fertility Rate
The red line shows a replacement rate of 2.1. (source)

Ehrlich is correct that Japan's birth rate dropped in 1966.

Japanese Birthrate 1900-2010
(source)

Japanese Total Fertility Rate 1925-2010

The red line shows a replacement rate of 2.1.
(source excel)

Japan was below the replacement rate from 1960-1964, above in 1965 (in anticipation of year of the fire horse), below in 1966 (year of the fire horse), above 1967-1973 and below in the following 37 years. Of the 50 years from 1960-2010, 8 are slightly above the replacement rate (peaking at 2.23 in 1967) while 42 are below the replacement rate.

1966 Japan is an example of "short-term fluctuations" in birthrates but somehow Ehrlich forgot to  mention that Japan's birthrate had for several years been below the replacement rate. It doesn't take a "professional optimist" to see Japan's birthrate dropping and come to the conclusion that Japan's population explosion has ended. 

Ehrlich was just another propagandist who would identify an issue and then declare some centralized control must be enforced. 

(note: a post written in 2016 but never posted, but I was reminded of it by Ehrlich's death)