Paul Ehrlich & the Population Bomb : professional optimists

from the Population Bomb by Dr. Paul R. Ehrlich, twelfth printing, Feb 1970, page 26-27

There are some professional optimists around who like to greet every sign of dropping birth rates with wild pronouncements about the end of the population explosion. They are a little like a person who, after a low temperature of five below zero on December 21, interperts a low of only three below on December 22 as a cheery sign of approaching spring. First of all, birth rates show short-term fluctuations caused by many factors. For instance, the birth rates depends rather heavily on the number of women at reproductive age. In the United States the current low birth rates soon will be replaced by higher rates as more post World War II "baby boom" children move into their reproductive years. In Japan, 1966, the Year of the Fire Horse, there was a year of very low birth rates. There is widespread belief that girls born in the Year of the Fire Horse make poor wives, and Japanese couples try to avoid giving birth in that year because they are afraid of having daughters.

He presents Japan's birthrate drop in 1966 as an example of a sign used by "professional optimists [although he labels them with a term of disparagement he doesn't name anyone] around who like to greet every sign of dropping birth rates with wild pronouncements about the end of the population explosion"

Let's deconstruct :

• start with a strawman argument that "greet every sign of dropping birth rates with wild pronouncements about the end of the population explosion"
• don't mention anyone who believe this
• derisively refer to the anonymous believers as "professional optimists"
• make an analogy to the passage of seasons to suggest it is cyclical (Does that imply that people having large families was also cylical?)
• declare that high birthrates will return in the US
• cite Japan in 1966 as an example of short term fluctuations in birth ratres
• imply that Japan will also return to high birth rates 

"In the United States the current low birth rates soon will be replaced by higher rates as more post World War II "baby boom" children move into their reproductive years." Let's see what happened :

United States birthrate 1900-2010

the red line denotes the Baby Boom (source)

US Total Fertility Rate
The red line shows a replacement rate of 2.1. (source)

Ehrlich is correct that Japan's birth rate dropped in 1966.

Japanese Birthrate 1900-2010
(source)

Japanese Total Fertility Rate 1925-2010

The red line shows a replacement rate of 2.1.
(source excel)

Japan was below the replacement rate from 1960-1964, above in 1965 (in anticipation of year of the fire horse), below in 1966 (year of the fire horse), above 1967-1973 and below in the following 37 years. Of the 50 years from 1960-2010, 8 are slightly above the replacement rate (peaking at 2.23 in 1967) while 42 are below the replacement rate.

1966 Japan is an example of "short-term fluctuations" in birthrates but somehow Ehrlich forgot to  mention that Japan's birthrate had for several years been below the replacement rate. It doesn't take a "professional optimist" to see Japan's birthrate dropping and come to the conclusion that Japan's population explosion has ended. 

Ehrlich was just another propagandist who would identify an issue and then declare some centralized control must be enforced. 

(note: a post written in 2016 but never posted, but I was reminded of it by Ehrlich's death)

Paul Ehrlich & the Population Bomb : 70 million hungry people

 “By the year 2000 the United Kingdom will be simply a small group of impoverished islands, inhabited by some 70 million hungry people ... If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000.” 
–Paul Ehrlich, Speech at British Institute For Biology, September 1971. (note that the quote by Ehrlich is not from the book)

Everyone panic! Wiki says the UK's population was 58,789,194 in 2001 but Ehrlich's prediction was 70 million hungry people. The mass starvation must have already begun! 

the UK population estimate for 2024 is 69,281,437.  

Paul Ehrlich & the Population Bomb : The Paul Ehrlich Method for Picking Up Chicks

the back cover of the Population Bomb 

The Paul Ehrlich Method for Picking Up Chicks is based on an assertion made on the back cover of The Population Bomb by Paul R. Ehrlich. Take careful note of inalienable right #11 : “The right to have grandchildren.”

What you need : the book the Population Bomb, a girl

How it works : 

Step 1 : find a girl, approach her and get her mother’s phone number
Step 2 : convince her mother how awesome you are and why you would make a great father
Step 3 : explain to the girl in step one that while it is unfortunate that her mother’s positive right to grandchildren infringes on her right to make her own decisions it remains that this (hold up book and wave it about) says her mother has “the right to have grandchildren” and the decision has been made so the daughter has a duty to oblige or else she will be violating her mother’s rights.
Step 4 : profit

Go ahead and try it : no guarantees are offered or implied.

Also note inalienable right #6 : “The right to avoid regimentation” From a book whose main message is shut up and be controlled. Here is the full list of asserted rights on the back cover.

(inside the book, a list of rights is given to be used as a response to anyone who claims individuals should have the right to decide how many children they have. The idea is that multiple rights (to grandchildren, to enjoy natural beauty etc) by sheer numbers outweigh any single right. I’d also say it is intended to devalue the idea of rights.)

Art as a Creative Endeavor : Norman Rockwell

Art Critic by Norman Rockwell, 1955

I think understanding the sources makes the Rockwell more entertaining. They aren't simply made from imagination but are slight modifications of existing art. 

To the left is Portrait of Isabella Brant by Peter Paul Reubens, c1620–1625

Portrait of Isabella Brant by Peter Paul Reubens, c1620–1625

To the right is Banquet of the Officers of the Saint Joris Doelen by Frans Hals, 1616

Banquet of the Officers of the Saint George Militia (Banket van de officieren van de Sint-Joris-Doelen) by Frans Hals, 1616

Movie notes: Mary Queen of Scots (2018)

I was recently watching the movie “Mary Queen of Scots” from 2018.

A Scottish army of nameless, non-diverse extras

It turns out that Tudor England & Scotland were racially diverse at the highest echelons of power although not so much when it comes to the rank & file soldiers. Apparently, painters at the time did a really poor job of capturing how black or Chinese they really were.

 
After Mary Queen of Scots (the Irish Saoirse Ronan) catches her husband naked and in bed with her prancing male aide David Rizzio (I didn’t recall that from the old history books), the aide begs forgiveness and the very Catholic Mary tells him to stand and that “you have not betrayed your nature” and he resumes his duties. Surely all Catholics in the 1500s were as tolerant, even Spanish ones.

 
Don’t think that this is a woke version of history : later she demands and tries to force sex from her drunken husband who repeatedly says no and he makes excuses while she turns violent and attacks him.
Later, a Scottish preacher calls her ”Queen Strumpet” and a crowd chants “death to the Whooooeeeerre” in a surprisingly charming Scottish accent.  I may have unintentionally laughed out loud.

 

Another line I that seemed questionable was her asking a Scots soldier if he was Catholic, him responding no and her telling him they all go to the same heaven.  

 
Visually it looks good but the script seems taken from a fairly boring soap opera with historical figures given roles and an extra dose of melodrama as opposed to a script telling what we know (or don't know) about consequential figures of history.  

Despite the drama that should be inherent in the story it was boring. It ends with a boring dialogue between Mary & Elizabeth that the filmmakers admitted was pure imagination and ahistorical. 

I doubt someone without prior knowledge of Mary Queen of Scots and Queen Elizabeth would come away with either a good understanding of the situation or a good understanding of history. 

movie notes : Ad Astra

The main problem with the movie Ad Astra (Latin for "to the stars") can be summed up with the filmmakers neglecting the advice : Show, don't tell. This is especially necessary for characterization. Repeatedly, the movie has Brad Pitt & Tommy Lee Jones characters say a lot of things about themselves but doesn't show very much to establish what is said.

The movie was a big disappointment. Spoilers below.

Movie Notes : Downsizing (2017)

Downsizing (2017) stars Matt Damon, Hong Chau and Christoph Waltz.

Hong Chau's character of annoying. She had an annoying voice and accent that sounded like a un-pc stereotype. I think the intent was for her to sound like a stereotype and then as her character develops the audience would see her differently. Worse, her character development was based on exposition.

Christoph Waltz played Christoph Waltz.

Matt Damon's character was an annoying idiot.  More than once I wished someone would slap him. Or that the movie be shown in Slap-O-Vision where anytime Matt Damon is speaking a guy in a mascot outfit with a gigantic Matt Damon foam head would walk down the theater aisles allowing viewers to slap him.

mock up of Slap-O-Vision giant foam head of Matt Damon

At one point it is announced that Matt Damon's character is going to Norway. Why I wondered. Did I miss something? Ah, because the writer said "Lo, so it has been written, so it shall be done" Upon occasion it was preachy in a quite unsubtle way.  I did like his character being a goofy idiot when it comes to celebrities. The intended direction of his character arc was obvious but not convincing.

Generally, I don't like Matt Damon.  I'm not sure exactly why as I liked the Jason Bourne movies and some others but in others I simply find him grating – I'd suggest he has a powerful anti-charisma.  In the Martian (2015), I kept hoping he would run out of air but despite that it was still a good movie. I laughed when he appeared in Thor Ragnarok (2017) opposite Sam Neil and Liam Hemsworth. I think my antipathy started when he was promoting Good Will Hunting (1997, awful) he went on Charlie Rose along with Robin Williams and it turned out Robin Williams was the sophisticated intellectual and Matt Damon was a window licking moron who clearly had no idea that he was a window licking moron.

Keeping that dislike in mind I can confidently say that Downsizing would have been awful even if it had been Matt Damon-less. It started out ok. The first half hour introduced the characters and the shrinking premise and not long after the special effects gimmick was introduced they basically ignored it. 

The movie is described as :

"Feeling that their lives are out of control, a husband and wife decide to be reduced to tiny size to make life more affordable and leave a smaller carbon footprint. Unfortunately, after he undergoes the procedure, his spouse backs out."

It sounds interesting. It wasn't. The interaction between normal sized and tiny sized were few and after about a third of the movie there were only a few oversized props to remind you what the movie was supposed to be about. Once he is shrunk his wife makes a one minute 45 second appearance (by a phone call!) and then completely disappears from the movie. It was almost as if a different movie that had nothing to do with shrinking had been grafted onto the final 2/3 of the movie.

I suspect they didn't know what to do with the premise so they opted to make it an "issue" movie so they'll get plenty of good imdb reviews because the issue resonates with those reviewers and not because of the quality of the movie.

Movie Notes : Father of the Year (2018)

Father of the Year (2018) : a mediocre movie where David Spade spends an entire movie doing an impersonation of Adam Sandler. That's about all worth saying about it.

Phony Egalitarianism : Smirnoff Equalizer

Some phony egalitarians at Smirnoff created an app to adjust Spotify playlist to include 50-90% women.

"performed by men artists" do they mean to use a noun as an adjective or do they mean male artists?

by "100% of the top streamed tracks" they apparently are referring to a subset of the lists published by Spotify.

part of the Spotify list of top tracks of 2017 (with Katy Perry at #14 and Rihanna at #15)

part of the Spotify list of top artist of 2017 (with Taylor Swift at #10)

Clearly by "100%" they really meant "not 100%"

So listening to an unequal playlist is bad, but the "equalizer" slider ranges from 50/50 to 90% to 10% favoring women. It's because they care about "equality" but it isn't as important as posturing

an idea about names

People with a surname that is a common as a first name  (like Mike Todd or Roger Howard or Henry James or Bruce Wayne) should give their kids a given name like traditional surnames :

Mike Todd becomes Smith Todd
Roger Howard becomes Kowalski Howard
Henry James becomes Yamamoto James
Bruce Wayne becomes Brown Wayne

(I'm not claiming it is a good idea just an idea)

Martin Sheen's plan

(a belated post due to procrastination)

Martin Sheen and his incredibly overdeveloped sense of self-importance.

Martin Sheen is the father of Charlie Sheen so we should all at least listen to him. 

At the time I remarked to an enthusiast of the video (I'll bold it because I think it is important) : in the long run it seems like a bad idea to transform the Electoral College from an institution that people expect will represent their vote into an oligarchy that picks the President of the United States based on lobbying by celebrities repeating things.

For the record, those involved in the video (according to this since I suspect some people will not  recognize all of them tho many will not care who they are)  : Martin Sheen, Debra Messing, James Cromwell, BD Wong, Noah Wyle, Freda Payne, Bob Odenkirk, J. Smith Cameron, Michael Urie, Moby, Mike Farrell, Loretta Swit, Richard Schiff, Christine Lahti, Steven Pasquale, Dominic Fumusa, Emily Tyra, Talia Balsam

Watch it and be amazed at the kind of argument that they think is convincing. If someone repeats phrases and says "I stand with you in support and solidarity with ...all citizens of the United States" and if they reference Alexander Hamilton and if they call you a hero and if they repeatedly say you'll have their respect then Martin Sheen would do anything you want!

In the end, there were a total of 7 faithless electors : 2 didn't vote for Trump and 5 didn't vote for Hillary.

transcript of the ad follows:

Emma Watson's misspelled tattoo

Emma Watson's tattoo of the word "Times" and a cartoon worm watching television

Apparently, Emma Watson (who I saw in the pile of mediocrity that was The Circle. She somehow managed more anticharisma than I would expect but I'm not sure why.) got herself a misspelled tattoo on her arm for the Oscars.

First of all the font, at a distance, makes it look like the second word is a cartoon worm watching television.

That tattoo is an embarrassing series of mistakes : punctuation, capitalization, spelling and spacing. I'd like to think most people would proofread and notice is said "Times up" instead of "Tie me Up!"

Propaganda posters from the Spanish Civil War #3 : a contrast or a consensus?

(this is the third installment; the first group of propaganda posters from the Spanish Civil War is here and the second, focusing on depictions of Franco, is here)

the Government's leash hand

Izquierda Republicana Junta Municipal Valencia
Gobierno. 
Obediencia ciega hasta ganar la guerra.
Orden Publico
Agricultura
Transporte
Industrias de Guerra
Ejercito
El que trate de mermar dicha autoridad es un traidor y a estos hay que exterminarlos.

Left Republican Municipal Council Valencia.
Government. Obedience blind until winning the war.
Public Order
Agriculture
Transport
War Industries
Army
The one who tries to reduce that authority is a traitor and these must be exterminated.

-----------------

It is surprising how much the Republican side and the Nationalist side agree. The above poster calls for the extermination for those who are not blindly obedient to the government and the poster below agrees : communism leads to extermination

communism leads to extermination : for some it is a bug for some it is a feature

"Lo Que Hay... ...Detrás del comunismo"
What there is ... ....behind Communism

-----------------

(scene : interior of a Valencian poster design office)
Valencian #1 : "Let's portray the government as a giant who can guide people into working together."
Valencian #2 : "Well, we should also stress the consequences of not working together."
Valencian #1 : "Let's portray the government as a giant who is psychopathically violent at anything less than cooperation." 
Valencian #2 : "but what about disagreement or questioning or people making suggestions?"
Valencian #1 : "Okay....Let's make it a giant who is psychopathically violent at anything less than blind obedience."
Valencian #2 : "*sigh* Cold blooded murder is awesome! I want to marry that giant! But shouldn't we portray the purpose of the government?"
Valencian #1 :  "Good thinking! We'll portray the government as a giant who is psychopathically violent at anything less than blind obedience and he keeps people on leashes." 
Valencian #2 : "Who wouldn't admire a government like that"

Censorship : Al Hirschfeld

from The Line King : The Al Hirschfeld Story (1996) Al Hirschfeld tells the story of cartoon censorship :

I remember doing a drawing of Harry Kurnitz play and it was a nude. The Times wouldn't run it unless I put a brasserie on her. So I put a brassiere on it and it ran in the Times with a brassiere and it ran in the Tribune without it. ... I think Life Magazine picked it up 

And they show an article titled "All the Nude That's Fit to Print" by George Spelvin  (George Spelvin is a traditional pseudonym used in programs in the American theater.) The play, Reclining Figure by Harry Kurnitz, is a satire of art collectors and dealers revolves around a counterfeit painting of a reclining nude. The Hirschfeld illustration was commissioned by the producers to accompany an ad of reviewer comments. The date on the clippings appears to be Monday Oct 11, 1954.

the original ad of risque cartoon nudity

The ad modified for the New York Times to add a bra and remove her navel. But still no hint of pants. A simple nude can be seen as classical or a study of the human form. A woman wearing a bra, suggesting a modern woman, but no pants I'd suggest that makes it more lewd.

As a bonus : the Renoir-esque painting from the play as found on AbeBooks :

The director of the the film, Susan Dryfoos, deserves credit for the title The Line King. That's great.  The DVD also included a bonus video of Hirschfeld drawing taken 6 years after the feature was released. Both were a pleasure to watch.

evolution engineering?

from the video :

"Creating some blue pigment out of the blue should have required inventing new chemistry and there was no way to just add that recipe to their genes. It was much easier for evolution to change the shape of their bodies ever so slightly at the microscopic level and create blue using physics instead. They solved a biology problem with engineering. "

Didn't they solve a biology problem with biology? Was it even a problem? Engineering is the application of knowledge to the design of something. Engineering isn't the best word to describe a mutation that continues due to natural selection by the collective result of the unorganized actions of multitudes of the birds in questions and predators of those birds.

One of my pet peeves is people ascribing agency to evolution as if evolution has a master plan (while sitting on a cloud with a lightning bolt in hand). 

Pictured : Evolution sitting on his throne in the clouds with lightning bolts in one hand considering how to engineer blue for the bird's feathers.

movie notes : Creation (2009)

The blurb :

Paul Bettany stars as Charles Darwin in this BBC biographical drama that captures the legendary scientist in a period of intense mourning -- and expansive intellectual discovery -- following the untimely death of his young daughter, Annie. As Darwin dares to question the existence of God, he pens his groundbreaking tome, On the Origin of Species -- much to the chagrin of his religious wife, Emma (Jennifer Connelly).

On one hand, the movie has Jennifer Connelly but on the other hand it has so much melodrama. Sure Jennifer Connelly is nice to look at but that isn't enough to carry a movie. Frankly I thought it was boring. There were a few good scenes but also a fair amount of pretension. It seems they spent a surprising amount of money on special effects.

There is a character connection between Darwin and his daughter Annie but the 3 other children are props. Darwin and Emma (Jennifer Connelly) are basically strangers sharing the screen. In one of the bonus features it is noted that Paul Bettany and Jennifer Connelly are actually married.  The science and the religious consequences were simple backgrounds for the personal drama. I think it was a terrible movie mostly because my expectations of what it would be were so far off from what was delivered.

--------------

There seems to be a specific genre of film where they take science and scientist and essentially ignore the science except for some jargon to set a scene and instead focus on a personal melodrama of the scientist.  I think this misses the point. The science should be the focus and the argument and discovery and the ramifications should be the drama. A partial list :

Creation (2009)
The Imitation Game (2014) with Keira Knightley & Benedict Cumberbatch
Man Who Knew Infinity (2016) with Dev Patel & Jeremy Irons

"Based on a true story" but often instead of the hard science parts that can be verified and discoveries charted the "based on a true story" veneer gets stuck on the human drama where almost all of the dialog is lost to history and a writer has to make it all up.

Elissa Strauss of CNN is an idiot

I'm embarrassed on CNN's behalf for this article they published (and I assume they paid money to publish). The article is basically the author reading web forum, quoting from it and then offering her own opinion. I would guess it is clickbait in the form of "Hey, look at this dumb pile of words! That can't be real can it? (click)"

The article, filed under health for some reason as opposed to mindless wanking, is titled : "Why kids love 'fascist' cartoons like 'Paw Patrol' and 'Thomas'"

Among these cartoons' many critics exists a subgroup of parents who are OK with some degree of autocracy and Manichean dualistic politics but just wish they would be presented with more nuance.

Manichean means everything is either black or white which they're ok with if it has more nuance so everything isn't either black or white.

Bonus dumbness from the story highlights bulletpoints :

"Thomas the Tank Engine" and "Paw Patrol" have been eviscerated by the press and on social media 

By which the author means by almost nobody.

Second bonus dumbness :

Here's an idea, gratis, for the creative team behind of "Paw Patrol" and "Thomas," should they want to broaden their appeal to parents without alienating their fan base: Ryder and Sir Topham Hatt retire and are replaced by their equally domineering sisters. This, in turn, boosts the social status of all the non-male characters. Children would still get the satisfaction of immersing themselves in an orderly universe where rules are rules, and everyone is in his or her place. Just without the white guy on top.

Just to be clear, Elissa Strauss is A-OK with what she describes as fascist if it isn't a white guy on top.

Ancient Sumerian part 2

I had previously and quite briefly looked at the ancient Sumerian language.

Those Sumerians had some peculiar religious beliefs. How odd that they would worship the cat from the Mr Bean cartoon.

Right there below the tail

I suppose it could be a star which would fit with its also meaning the heavens. 

Or an asterisk which would have the odd effect of suggesting that a foot note is a call out to god. 

How Orwellian : David Horsey is an idiot

from an article by David Horsey since pulled due to hyperventilating about the wrong insult :

Sarah Huckabee Sanders does not look like the kind of woman Donald Trump would choose as his chief spokesperson. Much like Roger Ailes when he was stocking the Fox News lineup with blond Barbie dolls in short, tight skirts, the president has generally exhibited a preference for sleek beauties with long legs and stiletto heels to represent his interests and act as his arm candy.

Trump’s daughter Ivanka and wife Melania are the apotheosis of this type. By comparison, Sanders looks more like a slightly chunky soccer mom who organizes snacks for the kids’ games. Rather than the fake eyelashes and formal dresses she puts on for news briefings, Sanders seems as if she’d be more comfortable in sweats and running shoes. Yet, even if Trump privately wishes he had a supermodel for a press secretary, he is lucky to have Sanders.

I'm not offended by the incredibly mild insult of calling her a "slightly chunky soccer mom" because I don't think "soccer mom" should be an insult and "slightly chunky" is hardly the worst insult hurled in politics.

I'm offended at the stupid premise that David Horsey suggests Trump wouldn't choose her and that using David Horsey's imagined telepathic abilities he knows Trump privately wishes he had a supermodel for press secretary while, in fact and contrary to David Horsey's suggestions of what Trump would do, Trump did make her his press secretary.

It turns out the for some people they are so convinced they know someone else's inner mind and what a bastard they are and they won't let reality intrude on that fantasy. 

Word of the Day : Wiener

In German, the Austrian city of Vienna in called Wien.

So demonym of the Viennese should be Wieners. For example, when Adolf Hitler lived in Vienna trying to be an artist he didn't make a big name for himself, in fact, he was a little, unimportant, failed Wiener.